People make predictions all the time. On social media, in group chats, on TV. Everyone has a take. The problem is that those takes are scattered, and they change fast. By the time something reaches the public, it is often already outdated.
Polymarket is emerging as one of the most interesting projects in crypto and Web3 for tackling exactly this problem. Earlier in the year, Polymarket completed a $200 million funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, pushing its valuation to around $1 billion and securing its place as one of crypto’s newest unicorns.
At a basic level, Polymarket lets users trade on what they think will happen next. Instead of posting opinions, people place trades. Prices move as people react to new information. Over time, those prices start to look like rough probabilities.
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This guide covers what Polymarket does, how people use it, and why it has been getting attention. It also goes over the technology behind the platform, the upcoming $POLY token launch, and how users can prepare for the token’s Q1 2026 airdrop.
What Is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users can speculate on the outcomes of real-world events. Polymarket runs markets based on specific questions. Each question is clearly defined, and each possible outcome has its own price.
The topics vary a lot. Some markets are about politics. Others focus on crypto prices, technology decisions, or public events. The structure stays mostly the same no matter the topic.
These markets can cover almost any topic imaginable, such as:
- Economics: Will Bitcoin’s price stay above $100,000 before the end of the year?
- Technology: Will TikTok face a ban in the U.S. this year?
- Entertainment: Will the next Academy Awards ceremony draw over 20 million viewers?
It is important to mention that users trade with each other, not against the platform. Polymarket does not set odds or take the other side of trades. Prices move because users buy and sell.
How Polymarket Works
Understanding how Polymarket works is pretty much simple. The platform is designed to be intuitive, even for people who have never traded before. Every market allows users to buy and sell shares that represent the possible outcomes of real-world events.
Trading Outcome Shares
Each event on Polymarket is turned into a market with two or more possible results. In a typical “Yes” or “No” market, you can buy “Yes” shares if you believe the event will happen, or “No” shares if you believe it will not. However, not all markets are “Yes” or “No” markets. Some feature multiple possible outcomes (such as different candidates or scenarios), allowing you to buy shares in whichever result you believe will occur.
For example, let’s say there is a market on Polymarket, “Will Zohran Mamdani win the New York City mayoral election 2025?” If you believe he will, you can buy “Yes” shares. If you think someone else will win, you can buy “No” shares instead.
Prices Reflect Probabilities
Every share on Polymarket trades between $0.00 and $1.00 and is priced in USDC, a stablecoin tied to the U.S. dollar. The price of each share represents how likely traders think that outcome is to happen.
If “Yes” shares for Zohran Mamdani winning the New York City mayoral election are priced at $0.18, the market is estimating an 18 percent chance that he will win.
Polymarket itself does not set these prices. They move according to supply and demand. If or when new information comes out, such as an endorsement of Zohran by someone that is well-respected among the public, more users can end up buying the “Yes” shares, which can end up raising the price to reflect the new probability.
Profiting From Market Changes
If you think the market’s estimate at that point of time is not right, you can still trade, let’s see how. Suppose you think Mamdani’s chances are better than 18 percent. You could buy “Yes” shares for $0.18. If he wins, each “Yes” share will be worth $1.00, giving you a profit of $0.82 per share. If he loses, those shares will lose their value and the “No” shares will pay out instead.
You are never forced to hold your position until the event ends. If the price of “Yes” shares that you own increases to $0.40 after positive news, you can always sell them early and just secure your profits instead of bagholding them.
This flexibility allows users to update or close their positions as information changes.
Getting Started on Polymarket
Setting Up a Wallet
Install a cryptocurrency wallet such as “MetaMask”, “Rabby” or “Phantom”. Both are, honestly, very easy to use and are very secure. Once you are done installing your wallet:
- Make sure to back up your seed phrase and store it somewhere that you consider very safe. It is very important that you never share your seed phrase with anyone because that can lead to loss of your entire funds.
- After securing the seedphrase, add USDC to your wallet to begin trading on Polymarket.
Exploring Markets
Once a wallet is connected, users can view the available markets on Polymarket. These cover a range of topics, including politics, sports, technology, and crypto. Each market displays the event being tracked, the possible outcomes, and the current prices associated with each option.
Placing Trades (Predictions)
Users select an outcome, choose an amount to allocate, and submit the trade. Positions can be adjusted or closed before the market resolves, depending on price movement. This setup allows participants to manage exposure as conditions change.
The $POLY Token: A Look at Polymarket’s Upcoming Airdrop and Tokenomics
Polymarket’s Upcoming Token
Polymarket currently allows trading entirely via USDC. That is expected to change soon. In a recent podcast interview, Matthew Modabber, the platform’s Chief Marketing Officer, confirmed that a native token called $POLY is in development, along with plans for an airdrop.
While exact token details such as supply, emission model, and distribution have not been released, the team’s immediate focus is on completing Polymarket’s regulated launch in the United States. Once that milestone is reached, attention will shift to the token rollout.
How to Potentially Earn $POLY Airdrop
There has been ongoing discussion within the Polymarket community around how a future $POLY airdrop might work. Some community members have been looking at activity patterns on Polymarket, although nothing official has been shared. These discussions are mostly informal and based on personal observations.
People tend to mention things like total trading volume, how often a wallet has traded, and the size of individual trades. There is no agreement on what matters most, and no criteria have been confirmed. A few users check their own activity using unofficial dashboards on platforms such as Dune Analytics.
None of this information has been confirmed by Polymarket, and no formal requirements have been published.
Activity outside of trading has also been noted. Polymarket has highlighted some community contributors who regularly share explanations, market updates, or analysis on social platforms such as X. These contributors can receive platform badges. Badges are an indicator of your loyalty to Polymarket but these do not confirm your airdrop eligibility, so do not get confused.
The Technology Behind Polymarket
Polymarket is a decentralized application (dApp) built on the Polygon network. Remember that Polygon is an Ethereum Layer-2 network.
Trades are executed on Polygon and later settled on Ethereum. Markets and payouts are handled through smart contracts. These contracts define how trades are executed and how outcomes are settled once results are confirmed.
Closing Thoughts
Polymarket is being used when outcomes are unclear and opinions differ. Over the past year, activity has tended to pick up around major events like elections, policy decisions, and other moments where there is no clear answer yet.
What sets the platform apart is that views are expressed through trades rather than statements. Now that there is money involved, traders pay close attention to updates and position themselves as soon as new information comes in. Prices move as those views change, offering a rough snapshot of how sentiment is shifting at a given time.
Looking ahead, there is ongoing interest around the planned $POLY token and a possible airdrop in 2026, although details remain limited. At the moment, the platform is largely operating as it has been, with most activity centered on current markets and outcomes.
