Prediction markets are once again attracting attention, as data from Polymarket indicates that the likelihood of the United States acquiring Greenland has surged to a new high. Traders are now assigning a 22% probability that President Trump will successfully bring Greenland under U.S. sovereignty before the end of 2026.
An X post shows that Polymarket’s “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” contract has been attracting strong engagement lately, garnering millions in trading volumes. The situation is slowly changing as one bettor placed a $100,000 wager this week, which completely tilted the scales and pushed odds higher. This also indicates that the idea of the U.S. conquering Greenland, which was once dismissed as fringe, is now witnessing a surge in public interest, with more capital invested.
It was back in 2019 that Trump first floated the concept of buying Greenland. He believes that controlling that region would give the U.S. an advantage over countries like Russia and China because of its location and natural resources. Earlier this month, he reiterated that the U.S. would continue its efforts to pursue the acquisition, calling it a national security priority. This is despite Greenland and Denmark rejecting the idea of any sale.
Interestingly, on January 17th, Trump announced he would impose new tariffs on several European NATO allies unless a deal is struck for the “complete and total purchase of Greenland.” These countries include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. The tariffs would start at 10% beginning February 1, 2026, and then increase to a steep 25% on June 1, 2026, if no agreement is reached
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Greenland operates independently but remains under the sovereignty of the Kingdom of Denmark and is a member of NATO. Any U.S. attempt to take it over would surely ruffle allies and spark legal pushback. Given the current scenario, it’s intriguing to see the jump in Polymarket’s odds. This goes to show that traders are reacting to geopolitical risk in real time, which gives a whole new perspective to prediction markets and its growing popularity within the crypto space.
