Polymarket said it has banned and reported users who allegedly sent threats to an Israeli journalist in an attempt to influence the outcome of a high-stakes prediction market.
The case centers on a market tied to an Iranian missile strike on Israel, which had attracted more than $17 million in bets.
Emanuel Fabian, a military correspondent for The Times of Israel, claimed he received messages urging him to change details in his report about a missile that struck near Beit Shemesh on March 10.
Fabian claimed that some individuals wanted him to describe the incident as a missile fragment or interception, which would affect how the prediction market resolves.
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He added that the messages escalated into threats, including warnings of harm and references to his family and personal details. Fabian said he reported the threats to authorities, and police are investigating.
Polymarket takes action
Polymarket said the behavior violated its terms of service and confirmed that the accounts involved had been banned.
The platform added that it would share information about the users with relevant authorities.
The market in question allowed users to bet on the date Iran would strike Israel, with rules stating it would resolve positively only if a missile or drone strike directly hit Israeli territory.
Concerns over prediction markets
The incident demonstrates increasing worries about prediction markets that operate with real-world events which include both conflicts and political situations.
The past year saw a substantial increase in trading activity on Polymarket despite critics warning that these markets create conditions which lead to market manipulation and unethical conduct.
Fabian claimed that people who tried to pressure him failed to achieve their goal yet he expressed worry that similar situations might impact other journalists in upcoming times.
