Polymarket predicts that the US government will experience another shutdown in January.
Traders on Polymarket are putting their money on it, with the odds at 77% before the end of January. The percentage increase shows a significant difference because it reached 77% after showing 67% in the previous day according to the website.
Political tension in Washington has resulted in this sudden increase in anxiety. The CLARITY Act for crypto and other essential laws face uncertainty because of this situation.
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The U.S. President Donald Trump claimed on Fox Business that the US might experience another shutdown because of Democrats which led to increased shutdown probabilities.
The Senate Democrats oppose the spending bill which provides funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Chuck Schumer thinks the bill doesn’t do enough to handle Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Collin Rugg, who watches politics, said that Polymarket’s odds shot up not long after Schumer’s statement. The market currently evaluates a shutdown as a real prospect for occurrence.
Crypto Regulation Timeline Faces New Uncertainty
The current situation about when crypto regulations will be enforced has become uncertain at this point in time. The CLARITY Act faces an impending shutdown risk which adds uncertainty to its projected timeline for implementation as the main cryptocurrency legislation established to provide regulatory guidance for the sector. The bill faced its first postponement because of the US government shutdown which lasted for 43 days during December 2025.
Parts of the cryptocurrency sector have withdrawn their backing from the proposed legislation. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said on January 15 that we should choose between no legislation or our current bad legislation because we don’t want to suffer from bad legislation.
Galaxy Digital head of research, Alex Thorn, published a research note which revealed that researchers maintain major disagreements between them regarding stablecoin yield matters. The US banking groups maintain that banks should not have permission to receive such yields because the practice would damage their essential operations.
Thorn reported that people have yet to notice any major progress towards reaching an agreement while the upcoming 4 to 6 week period before the next markup session provides lawmakers with additional time to establish shared positions.
The current market situation at Polymarket indicates that traders expect political deadlock to continue throughout January instead of any actual progress taking place.
