Today is turning out to be a very different day from yesterday, at least for the crypto market. After getting to a low of almost $63,037 yesterday, Bitcoin paved its way back above $66,483 at the time of writing—an almost 5% swing in under 24 hours. This happened as traders concluded that the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made a prolonged war less likely than it looked on Saturday night.
Iranian state television confirmed Khamenei’s death in the early hours of Sunday morning, and markets moved almost immediately. The logic was straightforward: no supreme leader means a power vacuum, and a power vacuum tends to favor de-escalation over further military adventurism. Solana led the altcoin recovery with a bounce of almost 10%, Ethereum reclaimed $2,000, and the market on the whole came back to what it had shed when the strikes began.
To understand Sunday, you have to understand Saturday. When President Trump confirmed Friday night that U.S. forces had begun major combat operations inside Iran—targeting its missile infrastructure, naval assets, and nuclear sites—crypto absorbed the full weight of that news alone. Bitcoin served as the only functioning pressure valve for global panic. Over $515 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, and roughly $75 billion was gone from the total market cap within the first hour of the announcement, according to CoinGlass.
By today, the mood flipped. Polymarket odds on a ceasefire by March 2 sat at just 8%, but bettors were lengthening their expectations—April 30 now carries an 81% probability of some resolution. Analysts at Swyftx noted that trading volumes remained elevated and that any softening in tensions would likely bring a corresponding bounce in confidence. But the situation remains hazy, and because of this, the Fear & Greed Index readings remain deep in Extreme Fear territory. The real verdict on the impact of the dramatic geopolitical tensions will be revealed on Monday, when ETF flows resume and Wall Street reopens.
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