Half a billion dollars placed on the timing of American missile strikes. Markets are wagering on whether world leaders will survive. Two US lawmakers have seen enough of such bets, and they want to make them illegal.
Representative Mike Levin from California and Senator Adam Schiff introduced a new law on Tuesday called the DEATH BETS Act, which would make it illegal for any federally registered organization to offer betting contracts related to terrorism, war, assassination, or someone’s death.
The bill targets a loophole in the existing Commodity Exchange Act, which currently grants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) discretionary authority to block such contracts only when it determines they conflict with the public interest. The new legislation strips that discretion entirely, replacing it with a strict ban.
“Over half a billion dollars was wagered on the timing of US military strikes on Iran alone,” Levin said in a statement. “That is unacceptable, and this legislation puts a stop to it.”
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Pressure Mounts on Prediction Markets
The push for tighter rules comes as prediction market platforms face a growing wave of criticism over contracts tied to geopolitical conflict and political violence. Earlier this year, Schiff led a group of Democratic senators in urging Michael Selig, chairman of CFTC, to act, warning that contracts resolving on a person’s death could create financial incentives to provoke violence or exploit classified intelligence.
The senators flagged a string of controversial markets that had surfaced on prediction platforms—including bets on whether the Artemis II spacecraft might explode, whether Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would lose power, and contracts tracking Russia’s advance on Ukrainian territory. One trader reportedly pocketed more than $400,000 betting on Maduro’s fate. Offshore platform Polymarket also drew backlash after hosting a long-running contract allowing users to bet on nuclear weapon detonations.
The CFTC itself signaled it plans to tighten oversight. Speaking at an industry conference in Boca Raton, Chairman Selig said he directed agency staff to draft guidance on how event contracts may be listed and traded, with a formal public rulemaking process set to follow.
