Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff has publicly admitted he was wrong about Bitcoin crashing to $100 instead of reaching $100,000. The former International Monetary Fund chief economist made this acknowledgment on X after Bitcoin surged past $112,000 in 2025.
Rogoff made his original prediction in March 2018 during a CNBC “Squawk Box” segment. He claimed government regulation would trigger a Bitcoin price collapse. Instead, Bitcoin broke $100,000 in December 2024 following Donald Trump’s election victory and has gained over 80% since then.
The economist identified three major miscalculations in his prediction. First, he overestimated how quickly the U.S. would implement “sensible” cryptocurrency regulation. He had questioned why policymakers would want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities through crypto.
Second, Rogoff failed to anticipate Bitcoin’s role in the global underground economy. He now acknowledges Bitcoin competes with traditional currencies as a transaction medium in the underground market, which is estimated to be worth trillions of dollars. Bitcoin has also become an inflation hedge in countries where governments have devalued local currencies.
Third, he didn’t foresee regulators allowing high-profile figures to hold large cryptocurrency positions without consequences. Rogoff expressed surprise at the lack of congressional scrutiny over what he calls Trump’s “glaring conflict of interest” from the Trump family’s crypto dealings.
Bitcoin’s success contradicts traditional economic assumptions. The cryptocurrency stayed below $10,000 throughout most of 2018 but reached a record high of $124,495.51 in August 2025. Supporters argue Bitcoin serves as a hedge against the existing financial system.
Regulations and Dynamics of Global Economy Do Play a Role In Crypto
U.S. President Trump has embraced cryptocurrency in a big way, signing an executive order to establish a federal Bitcoin reserve. More companies have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, driving institutional adoption.
Harvard’s own endowment fund invested $116 million in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. This investment highlights the broader institutional shift towards digital assets.
Crypto industry leaders responded to Rogoff’s admission with criticism. “Rogoff failed to imagine that a decentralized project could succeed at scale,” said Matt Hougan from Bitwise. FalconX researcher David Lawant thanked Rogoff, saying his book “The Curse of Cash” was so poor it pushed him toward Bitcoin.
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel ranked Rogoff ninth among Bitcoin’s loudest critics, accusing him of writing “Bitcoin’s obituary too early from within his echo chamber.” Critics also noted that Rogoff prevents people from replying to his X posts.
Despite admitting his prediction error, Rogoff maintains his overall skepticism about cryptocurrency. He continues to question the regulatory approach and Bitcoin’s use in illicit activities, though data shows cryptocurrency-related illegal activity represents less than 1% of total money laundering compared to cash.
The evolving cryptocurrency landscape makes long-term predictions increasingly challenging. Rogoff’s acknowledgment reflects the difficulty economists face when forecasting outcomes in rapidly changing financial markets.
