Bitcoin’s long-term outlook may be brighter than recent price action suggests, according to Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, who believes the cryptocurrency could be on the cusp of a bull market lasting well into the 2030s.
In a series of posts on X, Mow characterized 2025 as effectively a bear market year for Bitcoin, arguing that the period of weakness seen over recent months may already represent the cycle’s low point. From his perspective, the difficult second half of the year has laid the groundwork for a sustained and extended uptrend rather than signaling a deeper structural problem.
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high near $125,100 in October, but momentum faded soon after. Prices slid through the latter part of the year, leaving the asset trading well below its peak. Mow contends that this downturn should be viewed less as a warning sign and more as the final stage of a broader reset before a prolonged rally.
That view has found some support within the analyst community. Market commentator PlanC echoed Mow’s thesis, noting that investors who held Bitcoin through 2025 may have already endured the worst of the downturn. PlanC also drew attention to a historical pattern that has held up so far, noting that Bitcoin has never posted back-to-back losing years. If we look at it from that perspective, trading below the year’s opening level may say more about a rough patch in the market than a meaningful shift away from Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory.
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In the short term, however, the market remains unsettled. Bitcoin is heading into year-end on weaker footing, changing hands in the mid to high $80,000 range and sitting about 9 percent lower than at the start of the year, based on market data. That performance contrasts sharply with the more optimistic targets put forward earlier in the year by well-known bulls such as Arthur Hayes and Tom Lee.
Views on what comes next are far from unanimous. Longtime trader Peter Brandt has warned that prices could slide further, with a move back toward the $60,000 area not out of the question. Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, by contrast, has framed 2026 as a potential consolidation period, marked by choppy or sideways trading rather than a decisive move in either direction.
Even so, a number of market watchers remain cautious rather than outright bearish. They point out that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals have not materially changed, despite softer prices and subdued sentiment. From their standpoint, the recent pullback could simply be part of a broader cycle. If that view proves correct, the volatility seen in 2025 may end up being seen as the early stage of a much longer advance, not the point where the trend broke.
