A well-followed crypto analyst says many altcoins may struggle to return to the record levels seen during the last bull market, pointing to weaker fundamentals and thinner trading activity across much of the sector.
In the analyst’s view, the surge in 2021 was fueled largely by retail enthusiasm and heavy leverage. Today’s backdrop looks different. Capital has been concentrating around Bitcoin and Ethereum, while smaller tokens have had difficulty attracting sustained interest.
The analyst argued that many altcoin projects have yet to build the kind of user base or on-chain activity that can sustain higher prices. In several instances this cycle, tokens have climbed for a short stretch before giving back those gains as buyers stepped aside and activity slowed.
The broader environment has changed as well. Interest rates are higher than they were during the last run, and easier money is no longer driving the same level of risk-taking. Rather than spreading capital widely across smaller tokens, many investors have concentrated on larger, more established networks.
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Trading volumes reflect that change. Activity across much of the altcoin market remains well below previous cycle peaks, limiting the kind of momentum that once drove rapid price expansions. Lower trading activity has also made the market more fragile. With less trading taking place, moves have tended to be uneven. Prices can jump quickly, but the follow-through has often been limited.
At the same time, the picture is not the same for every project. Some tokens still have active communities and the teams of these projects occasionally launch products that people use. Those names could continue to see interest, particularly if conditions across the broader market turn more supportive. What has changed is the way investors are approaching them. There is less appetite for big projections and more focus on what is actually happening on the network.
Overall, compared with the last cycle, the mood around altcoins feels more restrained. Rather than rushing into quick spikes, traders appear more focused on which projects are still seeing real activity. For smaller tokens, what happens day to day on the network may carry more weight than a brief jump in price.
