Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are said to be considering new fundraising rounds that could value each company at roughly $20 billion, according to people familiar with the discussions.
If the companies manage to raise funds at those levels, it would represent a sharp increase from their earlier valuations and reflect the growing attention prediction markets have been receiving. Still, discussions with investors are said to be preliminary, and there’s no guarantee the fundraising will happen at those figures.
Kalshi’s Growth in the US Market
Kalshi operates in the US as a regulated prediction market platform where users place trades on the outcomes of real-world events, ranging from politics and sports to economic developments.
The company was started in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. Two years later, it received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing the company to run markets based on event outcomes under regulatory oversight.
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Kalshi last raised $1 billion in December, a round that valued the firm at roughly $11 billion and included backing from investors such as Paradigm and Sequoia Capital.
Since then, the platform has expanded quickly. Industry estimates suggest its annualized revenue run rate has moved beyond $1 billion, with some projections placing it closer to $1.5 billion.
Polymarket Preparing for a US Launch
Polymarket, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, currently restricts direct access for US users unless they use a virtual private network. The company is reportedly planning to launch a regulated version of its platform for the US market later this year.
The prediction platform was valued at around $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion in the business.
Prediction markets let users trade contracts linked to the outcome of future events. In simple terms, prediction markets let people trade on the likelihood of future events. Users can take positions on outcomes tied to politics, sports, or major global developments.
Growing Scrutiny From Lawmakers
As these platforms continue to grow, they are also attracting more attention from regulators and lawmakers.
The issue gained more attention after a number of bets appeared on markets tied to possible US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Because some of those wagers were placed shortly before the attacks, questions emerged about whether traders might have had advance information.
In response, some US lawmakers have started discussing potential legislation that would introduce clearer rules for prediction markets.
One claim suggested that certain accounts may have made around $1 million by placing wagers only hours before explosions were reported in Tehran. The timing of those bets has fueled debate over whether insider information could influence trading on these platforms.
Insider Trading Questions Around Polymarket
Polymarket has also faced scrutiny after several trades appeared to predict major developments shortly before they became public.
In one instance, a small group of crypto wallets reportedly generated more than $1.2 million by betting on a market linked to an investigation involving a DeFi project, just before a blockchain investigator released findings connected to the case.
Another incident involved a trader who earned roughly $400,000 after betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just before news of the event was reported.
Such incidents have fueled debate about whether prediction markets could be vulnerable to insider information, even as the sector continues to attract growing investor interest.
